Oscar Predictions 2026: Who Will Win the Oscars?

The 98th Academy Awards, more commonly known as ‘The Oscars’, will take centre stage on March 15, 2026, at the Dolby Theatre.

With the official Oscar nominations 2026 announced today, January 22, the race has reached a fever pitch. Leading the pack for Best Picture are favorites like One Battle After Another, Sinners, and Hamnet. Currently, Paul Thomas Anderson and Timothée Chalamet have emerged as the heavy betting favorites to win in their respective categories. This guide will take you through all of the data-driven Oscar predictions 2026 including the current front runners and favorites for the main categories.

So, if you have your popcorn at the ready, let’s begin.

The Evolution of Novelty Betting: From the Palace to the Oscars

Novelty betting has existed for decades, originally starting in the UK. Alongside traditional sports and racing events, bookmakers began to add non-sporting cultural and political side bets including, believe it or not, royal baby names. Of course, as popularity grew and technology advanced, so did the novelty betting market. 

Players can place novelty bets on all sorts of real-life events in current times – TV winners, song contests, soap opera storylines, celebrity events, and of course, Oscar winner predictions. In fact, Eurovision novelty bets are now one of the biggest non-sporting categories offered by betting sites in the UK and Europe.

Naturally, as novelty betting has become more popular, it has grown exponentially. Now, it’s not just about who will win the Oscars, but also about who will make the longest acceptance speech of the night, who might swear, or even if someone will trip or stumble on stage. 

Oscar 2026 Betting Odds & Win Probability

If you’re wondering how to predict Oscar winners, betting odds are the most reliable indicator. Since the official 98th Academy Awards nominations were revealed today, January 22, the betting markets have reacted sharply to the record-breaking 16 nominations for Sinners and the 13 nods for One Battle After Another.

Implied probability converts these odds into a percentage chance of winning. For instance, a favorite with odds of 1.20 has an 83.3% chance of taking home the Oscar.

Now, let’s take a look at who will win Oscars 2026 potentially, according to current odds:

Category	Nominee	Odds	Implied Probability
Best Picture	One Battle After Another	-400	80%
Best Picture	Sinners	+400	20%
Best Picture	Hamnet	+700	12.5%
Best Actor	Timothee Chalamet	-400	80%
Best Actor	Leonardo DiCaprio	+500	16.7%
Best Actor	Wagner Moura	+900	10%
Best Actress	Jessie Buckley	-3000	96.8%
Best Actress	Emma Stone	+2200	4.3%
Best Actress	Rose Byrne	+900	10%

Best Picture & Director: Who Are the 2026 Oscar Front-runners?

With the official announcement today, January 22, the race for the 98th Academy Awards has its definitive leaders. There are 10 films competing for Best Picture: Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Marty Surpreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Values, Sinners, Train Dreams, and Hamnet.

The spotlight is firmly on three major titles that have dominated the Oscar nominations 2026 Best Picture:

• One Battle After Another (Front-runner)
• Sinners
• Hamnet 

The current front-runner is One Battle After Another. Not only did it win Best Picture at the Critics’ Choice Awards, but it also picked up Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes too. 

When it comes to 2026 Oscar predictions for Best Director, unsurprisingly, the same three films are nominated:

• Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
• Ryan Coogler (Sinners) 
• Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

The frontrunning Oscar favorite for Best Director is undoubtedly Paul Thomas Anderson for a number of reasons. Firstly, his movie One Battle After Another is clearly the critics’ choice, so he deserves recognition for that movie itself. However, there is also a notion that Anderson is ‘overdue’ in Oscar circles for his previous body of work. 

Anderson has received 11 Academy Award nominations throughout his career, without a single win:

• 3 for Best Director
• 5 for Best Original or Adapted Screenplay
• 3 for Best Picture 

Oscar nominations have come for Boogie Nights, Magnolia, There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread, and Licorice Pizza. There is a real feeling that this year could be Anderson’s year.

Who Is The Favorite for Best Actor & Best Actress at the Oscars 2026?

The Oscar nominations 2026 actors’ categories are a little more open than those of the Best Picture and Best Director. Although Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe winners are always a good guide, the Oscars predictions on who will win don’t always follow. Let’s take a closer look at the four top categories:

Oscar nominations 2026 Best Actor in a leading role:

• Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
• Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
• Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
• Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
• Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)

Oscar nominations 2026 Best Actress in a leading role:

• Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
• Emma Stone (Bugonia)
• Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)
• Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue)
• Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)

Following the official announcement today, Timothée Chalamet and Jessie Buckley have solidified their status as the front-runners at many betting sites. Their odds have shortened even further after both actors scooped the top awards at the Golden Globes and secured their official 2026 Oscar nominations this morning.

Chalamet’s portrayal of a complex, emotionally layered character navigating moral dilemmas in Marty Supreme has earned him universal critical acclaim, with many insiders calling it a career-defining moment. Meanwhile, Buckley has been described as being ‘transcendent,’ giving one of the year’s most compelling performances in the emotionally-charged Hamnet.

Conclusion

The 2026 Oscars race is officially underway, and it’s already proving to be one of the most exciting in decades. With the official Oscar nominations 2026 revealed today, the probability of Paul Thomas Anderson finally winning his “overdue” Oscar for One Battle After Another has moved from buzz to a near-certainty according to betting markets.

When you combine that narrative with the career-defining performances of Timothée Chalamet and Jessie Buckley, it’s clear why the 98th Academy Awards will be a historic night. Now that the shortlists are final, the countdown to March 15 begins.

Be sure to keep an eye on our updated Oscar odds table as the campaign season heats up. If you feel like having a flutter on your favorites, always remember to bet safely — check out our responsible gambling guide for more details.

FAQs