Kalshi Logs $87M Trading Day, Its Biggest Since Elections, as Football Markets Dominate

The start of the college football season resulted in a record-setting day for Kalshi, which posted $87 million in trading volume on Saturday, its highest volume since the 2024 elections.

According to the Next Event Horizon, a newsletter that closely tracks prediction markets, sports accounted for nearly $85 million (almost 96%). College football alone generated $62.6 million, or almost 72%.

Three games alone accounted for almost half of the trading for the day: Clemson vs. LSU, Florida State vs. Auburn, and Ohio State vs. Texas. College football’s popularity on Kalshi is also highlighted by the $152 million volume on game outcomes to date.

From Politics to Props: Kalshi’s Football Pivot

Saturday’s $87 million spike may prove just the beginning.

Kalshi recently self-certified to offer point spreads, totals, and touchdown prop betting on NFL and NCAA games. By expanding the types of contracts it offers, the platform is positioning itself to capture more trading activity as the season progresses.

“This is a natural progression in our offerings, and clearly there’s huge consumer demand,” said Kalshi spokesperson Sara Slane. CEO Tarek Mansour added that “Bringing these markets under CFTC oversight gives consumers the same level of protections as Wall Street traders and institutions.”

Early data suggests props are still a small slice of activity. Wagering on college spreads and totals was less than $400,000 of Saturday’s $87 million haul. Still, that’s likely because Kalshi’s distribution partner does not yet list them.

Once props are fully integrated across retail channels, volumes are expected to rise significantly, particularly around marquee NFL games.

Under US futures law, exchanges can self-certify new products without prior approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). That’s provided they attest that the contracts meet the requirements of the Commodity Exchange Act. That gray area has given Kalshi a chance to expand its playbook without waiting for CFTC action.

CFTC Inaction and the Quintenz Factor

Regulatory hesitation has become one of Kalshi’s greatest assets.

The CFTC has not yet taken a stance on sports prediction markets. At the same time, state attorneys general, tribal operators, and professional sports leagues are calling for oversight.

One part of the problem is the lack of leadership. The CFTC is still waiting on Senate confirmation of Brian Quintenz, Donald Trump’s nominee for chair. Quintenz currently sits on Kalshi’s board, a position he says he will resign from if confirmed. He also pledged to recuse himself from anything related to the company.

While it was expected that Quintenz would be in position by now, the confirmation has been delayed multiple times. Emails obtained through the Freedom of Information Act show Quintenz sought competitive intelligence about rival platforms while serving on Kalshi’s board. That raised alarms among lawmakers.

At the beginning of the month, Rep. Dina Titus, a Nevada Democrat, sent a letter to the CFTC, urging investigations into Quintenz’s communications. Titus also wants the CFTC to “release all relevant communications from or about Mr. Quintenz related to prediction markets and event contracts.”

For the time being, the agency remains leaderless, giving Kalshi a golden window. With football season underway, trading volume can grow without the immediate threat of federal pushback.

Litigation Landscape: Maryland to Nevada

While the CFTC is holding back, Kalshi is facing numerous challenges from state regulators. They are questioning whether sports event contracts are actually illegal sports betting.

The company scored some victories as courts in Nevada and New Jersey blocked cease-and-desist orders issued by the respective regulators.

In contrast, earlier this month, a judge in Maryland denied a preliminary injunction that would have forced Kalshi to suspend operations in the state. However, the company struck a temporary agreement allowing trading to continue during the appeal process.

Meanwhile, in recent developments in the Nevada court case, the state has requested a formal discovery process. The request calls for Kalshi to provide evidence of the event contracts it offers in the state to determine whether these comply with Nevada gaming laws.

Other states have launched investigations or issued cease-and-desist orders to Kalshi, including Ohio, Illinois, Connecticut, and Montana.

Additionally, three California Native American tribes have sued Kalshi. They alleged it operates illegal sports betting on tribal lands, violating the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA) and threatening tribal sovereignty.

Together, these cases illustrate a patchwork problem. Kalshi falls under federal regulation, but many states claim its sports event contracts are subject to state-level compliance. That forces it to contend with multiple regulatory requirements.