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Read Full BioKalshi continues to expand its range of sports prediction markets and has now self-certified parlays with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
In a filing seen by Casino Beats, the company sent a letter to the CFTC, laying out plans for the new markets titled, “Will <outcomes> occur in <events>?”.
The letter details the terms of the new contracts, specifying that they will apply to football statistics. The outcomes part of the market “may include game outcomes, player statistics, team statistics, championships, awards, season statistics, playoff outcomes, draft outcomes, and milestones”.
The events part covers “individual games, weeks of the season, the regular season, the postseason/playoffs, the full season, a career, and drafts”.
This will essentially allow users to place parlays on prop betting, matches, and futures for the new NFL season. Kalshi recently self-certified more football markets, including point spreads, totals, and touchdown prop bets. The move into parlays, one of the most popular ways to gamble, could greatly increase the platform’s reach.
Kalshi to Create Set Parlays For Users to Trade
Sportsbooks usually allow users to create their own parlays, with some restrictions on related events. This is possible due to the against-the-house nature of sports betting, where the company takes on the liability of each bet.
It would be problematic for an exchange, such as Kalshi, to allow users to do this, as every bet must be matched by other users. If all markets were available, there would be no user liable for the multiplied odds.
As a result, it appears Kalshi will create set parlays and allow users to predict that all the outcomes will occur or the parlay will fail. Confident users can adopt the role of the bookmaker and take on high liabilities for the unlikely roll-up of several events to take place.
Parlays Big Money Maker For Sportsbooks
Parlays are usually a big money maker for sportsbooks. BetMGM has launched a new ad campaign encouraging players to gamble on football parlays with the hope of winning big. However, more often than not, bettors fall short.
Last year, US sportsbooks increased their hold percentage to 9.68%, up from just over 7% after legalization in 2018. The rise has largely been attributed to parlay betting, which generates a hold of around 15%.
In New Jersey, parlays made up 47% of sportsbook revenue while accounting for only 20% of betting handle. That equated to a 15.4% hold rate, compared with approximately 4.5% for straight bets.
As more selections are added, the payout may be higher, but the chance considerably drops. Taking on all parlays for the bookmaker allows companies to pay large sums when users occasionally do get lucky. At an exchange platform, users taking on the role of the house will have to hope they are not on the unfortunate end of a massive payout.
Prediction Markets Continue to Expand With CFTC Remaining Silent
The CFTC has so far not objected to any of Kalshi’s self-certified sports markets, and seems unlikely to do so for parlays. If the markets prove popular, other platforms will likely follow.
Crypto.com has been expanding its markets along with Kalshi, and with a new partnership with Underdog, it is a prime candidate for further expansion. The partnership will offer sports prediction markets in 16 states, mainly where sports betting is not legal. This includes California and Texas.
The expansion of prediction markets shows no sign of letting up as the football season prepares to kick off. State regulators are likely to be contemplating the next move to stop the threat to regulated gambling companies and tribes.
