Chiefs vs. Jaguars Odds, Prediction: Best Bets for Monday Night Football

NFL Week 5 concludes with Chiefs vs. Jaguars on Monday Night Football, and in our estimation, the wrong team is favored at sportsbooks across the country.

Public money has once again flowed in on the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes, with 70% of tickets and 82% of the money on Kansas City at BetMGM. The line has been pushed from Chiefs -3 to -3.5.

Jacksonville (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) is off to a strong start with an improved defense that allows 18 points per game. That metric ranks the Jags as the fourth stingiest defense in the league.

Kansas City (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) has looked out of sorts offensively early in the season. Still, Mahomes is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS against the Jaguars for his career. Tonight could tell a very different tale at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville.

Best MNF Bet Against the Spread

Jaguars +3.5 (-110)

The Jags are a live underdog at home. Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in its last six games dating back to last season. Our pick is based on the new-look defense, which has produced 13 turnovers this year. That gives the Jags an NFL-best +9 turnover margin.

Jacksonville’s offense has put up at least 26 points per game, too. The outlier was a 17-point outing versus Houston, which features one of the league’s top defensive units. Keep an eye on RB Travis Etienne Jr., who’s registered 100+ rushing yards in two of four games this season.

Best MNF Player Prop Bet for Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Over 4.5 Rushing Attempts (-118)

Mahomes has been forced from the pocket several times in the young season. Here are his rushing stats in each of the first four games:

• 6 carries, 57 yards vs. Chargers
• 7 carries, 66 yards vs. Eagles
• 5 carries, 2 yards vs. Giants
• 4 carries, 5 yards vs. Ravens

Also consider Mahomes going OVER 22.5 rushing yards tonight at -110. He ripped off a 22-yard run against the Eagles and a 15-yard tote versus the Chargers. Expect him to face plenty of pressure from the Jacksonville front tonight.

Best MNF Player Prop Bet for Jaguars

Travis Etienne Jr. Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+100)

Etienne is back to being the cowbell RB for Jacksonville. He’s had at least 14 carries in all four games this season, topping out at 19 in last week’s win at San Francisco.

Etienne is averaging just a shade under 100 rushing yards per game, ranking him fifth in the NFL with 394 yards. He’s also a factor as a receiver with six catches on 10 targets. For this bet, Etienne has scored a TD in his last three games. Two have come on the ground, and one has come through the air.

We like his chances to find paydirt again against the Chiefs.