James Madison vs. Texas State Odds, Prediction: Best Bets for Tonight’s CFB Game

College football rolls on tonight with an intriguing matchup between James Madison vs. Texas State in the Sun Belt Conference. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

We’re in the middle of a 49-day stretch that includes at least one pro or college football game. James Madison (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) sits alone atop the Sun Belt East standings with an unblemished 4-0 record. Texas State (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) is 0-3 in conference play and resides in the basement of the Sun Belt West standings.

James Madison is a 7-point road favorite at DraftKings. Unsurprisingly, 71% of the spread bets at DraftKings have come on the favored Dukes. Let’s see if there’s evidence to support a play on the Bobcats as live home underdogs.

Best Bet for James Madison vs. Texas State: Against the Spread

Texas State +7 (-115 at DraftKings)

James Madison carries major momentum into tonight’s tilt, riding a five-game winning streak after dismantling Old Dominion, 63-27. Quarterback Alonza Barrett III threw for 295 yards and a pair of TDs. We buried the lead with that sentence, as Barrett rushed for 153 yards and four scores.

Running Back Wayne Knight, who amassed 101 scrimmage yards and a touchdown against Old Dominion, could be in line for a bigger night against Texas State’s sketchy run defense. The Dukes lean heavily on the ground game, and the Bobcats give up 168.7 rushing yards per contest.

James Madison ranks third nationally in team defense, allowing just 237 total yards per game. That’s heady stuff, as only top-ranked Ohio State and Iowa allow fewer yards.

Texas State features a balanced offense under the direction of QB Brad Jackson, who’s thrown for 1,786 yards and nine TDs with only a pair of interceptions on the season. He’s coming off a career game with 444 passing yards in a loss to Marshall. Like his counterpart Barrett, Jackson is also a threat on the ground with eight rushing TDs.

The Bobcats rank 28th nationally in offensive EPA/play. Texas State is also better than its record indicates. The Bobcats have been competitive during their current three-game losing streak:

• Marshall 40, Texas State 37 (OT)
• Troy 48, Texas State 41 (OT)
• Arkansas State 31, Texas State 30

The Bobcats also rank 34th in the country in converting on third down (48.6%). They’ll need to continue that success to hang tough against James Madison’s elite defense.

Best James Madison vs. Texas State Bet on Total (OVER/UNDER)

UNDER 55.5 (-110 at bet365)

Wind could play a major role in tonight’s game in San Marcos, Texas. The Weather Channel notes that a wind advisory calls for North winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

This is purely a weather-based play. Shopping across the market, the total was a consensus 55.5.

Best Player Prop for James Madison vs. Texas State

James Madison RB Wayne Knight OVER 72.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

James Madison’s run-first offense might be even busier if the winds affect the passing game tonight. Knight has eclipsed this number of rushing yards in six of seven games this season. The outlier was a 5-carry, 12-yard effort in James Madison’s only loss of the season to Louisville.

Knight averages 13 carries and 87 yards per game, and as mentioned, he’s facing a defense that struggles to stop the run.

Knight leads the Dukes in carries (93), rushing yards (611), and yards per carry (6.6). He’s also got the longest run of the season for James Madison (59 yards). Looking for better odds on this prop? FanDuel offered +108 for Knight to have 80+ yards at the time of publication.