Adam Roarty is a journalist covering sports betting, regulation, and industry innovation for CasinoBeats. His coverage includes tax increases in the UK, covering breaking stories in the ever-evolving landscape of US betting such as the...
Read Full BioThe World Cup 2026 draw is set, and sportsbooks are gearing up for the tournament, with betting handle expected to exceed the $35 billion wagered at Qatar 2022.
Caesars Sportsbook’s head of soccer, Mark Bickerdike, said he expects to see records broken at the 2026 World Cup, which kicks off with Mexico hosting South Africa on June 11, 2026.
Bickerdike commented, “Expectations for next summer’s World Cup are extremely high. Having an extended tournament in a U.S. customer-friendly time zone should result in this being the highest handle soccer competition the industry has ever seen.”
The handle at the last World Cup in Qatar saw gamblers stake over $35 billion during the month-long tournament. FIFA has expanded the number of teams from 32 to 48, resulting in more matches and increased betting opportunities.
It has also led to more financial opportunities for soccer’s governing body. FIFA has faced criticism over its dynamic ticket pricing, as well as a criminal complaint by the Swiss authorities regarding allegations that its complex ticket system constitutes gambling.
The extended edition will last for six weeks, with the final scheduled for July 19. Bickerdike added, “It’s going to be an action-packed six weeks, with only five rest days, so there will be plenty of soccer on offer for viewers.”
The showpiece soccer event will be the first staged in North America since the PASPA ruling in 2018 paved the way for legal sports betting in the U.S.
Recently, prediction markets have also experienced a surge in popularity, and all major operators will be offering markets on the tournament, enabling the majority of US residents to wager on the event. Although by then, states may have clamped down on the platforms.
USMNT Favored to Make Progress
The draw has pitted the US Men’s National Team (USMNT) against Paraguay in its opener, followed by Australia on June 19, before a final match against a European side yet to be determined.
The final opponent could be Slovakia, Kosovo, Romania, or Turkey. The latter is expected to win the playoffs, but preparations have been disrupted by a major betting scandal in the country, which has led to the arrest of several members of the national team.
The USMNT are the favorites at +125 to win the group, with Paraguay at +350 and Australia at +750. The European team could be the stiffest opposition and will be priced up after the playoffs in March.
“I think the (U.S. Men’s National Team) has reason to be optimistic about a good run in this tournament,” Bickerdike said. “They have performed well in their most recent friendlies under Mauricio Pochettino, with the 5-1 victory over Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay (on Nov. 18) being particularly impressive. In addition, they have reached the Round of 16 in three of the last four World Cups. Receiving a favorable draw will now only enhance their chances of reaching the latter stages of the tournament.”
Overall, the U.S. is an outside shot at +5000 to win its first ever men’s World Cup.
Spain Favored to Win World Cup
Brazil won the tournament the last time it was hosted in the US, in 1994. The South Americans are +800 to claim their sixth World Cup, with defending champion Argentina at the same price.
It will likely be the final time 38-year-old Lionel Messi plays in a World Cup. The Argentinian plays in the U.S. for MLS side Inter Miami.
The European sides are favored over their South American rivals, however. European champions Spain are the overall favorites at odds of +400. Westgate SuperBook Vice President of Risk Jeff Sherman said the Spanish are attracting a lot of interest in Vegas.
Sherman told the Las Vegas Review Journal, “They’re No. 1 in ticket count and No. 1 in money wagered.”
Behind them come England (+600) and 2022 losing finalist France (+750). Sherman added, “France is a loaded team. All their players play in the top leagues in Europe, so they’re always going to be there. They’ve got a younger squad.”
Ronaldo Cleared to Play Despite Red Card
Cristiano Ronaldo, now 41, will also be competing at a World Cup for what will surely be the last time. FIFA made a special exception to their rules to allow Ronaldo to play in the first two games of the tournament.
The Al Nassr forward received a red card for elbowing Dara O’Shea during Portugal’s 2-0 loss to Ireland last month, which would usually incur a three-match ban. However, FIFA stepped in to ensure that one of the tournament’s stars does not miss any action. They took the unprecedented step of suspending his ban for a year.
Portugal is +1100 to win its first World Cup. Ronaldo led his nation to glory at the 2016 European Championships, but a World Cup is about the only trophy missing from his list of career achievements.
Sherman said he thinks the Portuguese could be the value bet. He stated, “Brazil and Argentina are a little bit older teams. Portugal, to me, feels better situated than Argentina, even though they have higher odds.”
