Bills vs. Broncos Odds, Predictions, Picks: Top Teaser & Two Josh Allen Player Props for Saturday’s First Game

The Buffalo Bills collide with the Denver Broncos in Saturday’s AFC Divisional Playoff game. Kickoff from Empower Field at Mile High is set for 4:30 p.m. ET with live coverage on CBS.

The Bills are coming off a 27-24 win over the Jaguars in the Wildcard round. As the AFC’s No. 1 seed, the Broncos enjoyed a week off before hosting the Bills.

DraftKings is dealing Denver as a 1.5-point favorite as of publication. The total is set at 45.5 and slightly juiced to the OVER at -112.

Best Bets for Bills vs. Broncos

6-Point Teaser: Buffalo +7.5 & UNDER 51.5 (-135 at DraftKings)

Buffalo is lined perfectly for this Wong Teaser, which carries the Bills up through the key number of seven. Pairing it with the UNDER gives us a fairly lofty total against a Denver team that’s allowed an average of 12 points over its last three games.

This is a rematch of last year’s Wildcard game, which Buffalo won going away, 31-7. That marked the NFL Playoff debut for Denver QB Bo Nix, who struggled in the passing game with just 144 yards and a TD. He did have 44 rushing yards.

Expect a much closer affair this time around in Denver, but Josh Allen vs. Nix is still a mismatch in our estimation. Allen took an absolute beating against the Jags, but still managed to pass for 273 yards and account for three total TDs. Nix has been inconsistent this season, and that’s why we faded Denver in our betting preview for the AFC Playoffs.

Buffalo’s pass defense is stout, allowing just 159.6 yards per game. Only the Vikings allowed fewer during the regular season, but they failed to make the playoffs. In the win at Jacksonville, head coach Sean McDermott used disguised coverages to befuddle Trevor Lawrence, who entered the game as the NFL’s hottest QB.

Buffalo also picked Lawrence off twice, and it’d be no surprise to see a repeat of that with Nix on Saturday.

Josh Allen OVER 8.5 Rush Attempts (-104 at DraftKings)

Despite being battered by the Jags, Allen used 11 rushing attempts to amass 33 yards and two TDs on the ground. When the postseason arrives, and everything is on the line, Allen returns to a higher run usage.

You could also ladder his rushing prop on alt totals, getting +143 odds on Allen having at least 10 carries.

Josh Allen UNDER 209.5 Passing Yards (-113 at DraftKings)

Buffalo is exceedingly thin at wide receiver after Gabe Davis, Joshua Palmer, and Tyrell Shavers suffered season-ending injuries. Denver’s pass defense is a top-seven unit, and Patrick Surtain II is arguably the best cornerback in the NFL. Expect him to shadow No. 1 WR Kalil Shakir.

Buffalo will also try to involve WR Brandin Cooks and the TE duo of Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Just don’t expect Allen to enjoy a passing performance like last week’s at Jacksonville, which boasted the league’s No. 1 rush defense. The Jags shut down RB James Cook, but again proved to be vulnerable through the air.