Patriots vs. Broncos Odds, Predictions, Picks: Best Bets for AFC Championship

It’s difficult to imagine a backup quarterback who hasn’t thrown a meaningful pass in three years leading his team to the Super Bowl. That’s where the Denver Broncos and Jarrett Stidham find themselves heading into Sunday’s AFC Championship against the visiting New England Patriots.

New England counters with QB Drake Maye, who’s an NFL MVP candidate after a terrific sophomore NFL season. When Denver starter Bo Nix (ankle) suffered a season-ending injury late in last week’s 33-30 OT win over Buffalo, it set the stage for a Cinderella story featuring Stidham as the protagonist.

The Broncos went from a 1.5-point look-ahead line favorite to 4.5-point home underdogs at DraftKings as of publication. The total is set at 42.5.

Can Stidham somehow outduel Maye and become a Super Bowl starting quarterback in the process? Stranger things have happened, but Denver’s defense needs to step up after getting annihilated by Buffalo last week.

Best Bet Patriots vs. Broncos: Against the Spread

Stidham knows Sean Payton‘s offense after spending two years in the system. His lack of meaningful playing time will be (somewhat) mitigated by receiving all of the first-string reps leading up to Sunday’s game.

That will mean nothing if Denver doesn’t shore up its defense. The Broncos were one of the league’s top-rated units during the regular season, but Buffalo exposed them in the divisional round.

The Bills rolled up 449 yards of total offense. Josh Allen threw for 283 yards and three TDs, but was also picked off twice. Allen and RB James Cook also combined for 183 rushing yards. Simply put, Buffalo did whatever it wanted offensively, but killed itself with five turnovers.

Maye is also a capable runner at QB, but he’s not as elite (or experienced) as Allen. Maye is making his first road playoff start in a hostile environment. We expect Denver’s defense to revert to form on Sunday. The Broncos allowed only 278.2 yards per game, ranking second in the NFL in total defense during the regular season. Denver was also third in scoring defense, allowing just 18.3 points per game.

Stidham will do enough to keep this game competitive, but expect the Patriots to eke out a win without covering the spread.

Best Bet: Broncos +4.5

Best Player Prop for Denver Broncos

QB Jarrett Stidham UNDER 32.5 Pass Attempts (-107 at DraftKings)

This just makes sense given Stidham’s lengthy absence from real competition. He completed 40 of 66 passes for 496 yards…in 2023.

Expect Payton to go run-first and run-heavy with lead RB RJ Harvey, who took over for JK Dobbins (foot). Dobbins returned from IR this week and was a limited participant in yesterday’s practice, too. He could return on Sunday.

In any case, look for Payton to protect Stidham against a solid New England defense that ranked top-10 in sacks with 48 during the regular season.

Best Player Prop for New England Patriots

WR Kayshon Boutte OVER 37.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at DraftKings)

Stefon Diggs is New England’s top target in the passing game. He led the team in the regular season with 85 catches, 102 targets, and 1,013 yards. As WR1, that means he’ll command the most attention from Denver CB Patrick Surtain II, one of the best cover corners in the league and last season’s defensive POY.

Boutte’s been solid in the postseason with 66 yards against the Chargers and 75 yards, along with a TD against the Texans. This is a highly attainable number for the former gambling addict who recovered in time to save his chance at an NFL career.