Adam Roarty Editor
Adam Roarty is a journalist covering sports betting, regulation, and industry innovation for CasinoBeats. His coverage includes tax increases in the UK, covering breaking stories in the ever-evolving landscape of US betting such as the...
Read Full BioGenius Sports saw its share price fall dramatically after announcing the acquisition of digital sports and gaming media network Legend. Citizens analyst Jordan Bender said investors may misunderstand Legend’s business model, leading to a panicked sell-off.
Genius announced it had acquired Legend on Thursday in a transaction valued at up to $1.2 billion, including $900 million payable at closing and an additional $300 million dependent on the company reaching certain targets.
Bender noted that the high price has put off investors. The company’s stock price fell by over 27% after the news broke. On Friday, its price was at just over $6, a sharp fall from over $9 earlier in the week.
The Citizens analyst said that, “The negative reaction we are seeing in the price of the stock is a misunderstanding of the Legend business model, in our view, which is not a pure-play affiliate model.”
He noted that Genius will only pay 36% of the fee upfront, “which would imply the business is not apples-to-apples with affiliates, trading at depressed EBITDA multiples”.
Bender added, “This is a type of acquisition that will require investor education around the unique dynamics of the business.”
Despite the dramatic drop, Citizens maintains a bullish price target of $17 on Genius. The rating on Genius was raised in December. Citizens noted concerns about the legal challenges facing some of Genius’s partners, which include Kalshi and Crypto.com, but remained optimistic that the company can withstand any action against prediction markets.
Genius Claims Partnership Will Monetize Sports Fans
Genius Sports holds official data, technology, and commercial partnerships with many of the world’s most valuable and watched sports competitions, including the English Premier League, other major European soccer leagues, the NFL, and the NCAA.
It provides this official data to a range of betting partners, including prediction market platforms and sportsbooks such as Hard Rock Bet and Bally’s. It also serves major broadcasters, including CBS, NBC, and ESPN, providing real-time stats for live sports coverage.
Legend operates a network of over 25 global affiliate brands in digital media and betting content, including Covers and Casino.org. When announcing the deal, Genius noted that the company attracted 320 million visits from 118 million unique visitors last year.
Mark Locke, CEO of Genius Sports, said, “This deal accelerates our strategic and financial objectives, supercharges fan monetization, and builds a fully integrated sports and gaming media network.”
Genius Reports Strong Growth in 2025
The company also reported its Q4 financial results, with revenue reaching $669 million for the year, a 31% increase from 2024. The company started the year strongly and said price hikes on clients had contributed to an increase in revenue.
Adjusted EBITDA was $136 million, reflecting a 59% increase from 2024. The company is targeting revenue of $810 million to $820 million in 2026.
Locke believes the deal with Legend will help the company achieve that. He added, “The acquisition of Legend will drive higher margins and stronger free cash flow, positioning Genius Sports to immediately transform the market and grow the size and scale of our business.”
Nick Kisberg, Founder of Legend, commented, “Joining forces with Genius Sports brings together two world-class teams, unlocks unparalleled growth opportunities for our partners and products, and gives us an even stronger platform to scale. I am immensely proud of what we have built and the decades of hard work that have brought us here today.”
