Adam Roarty Editor
Adam Roarty is a journalist covering sports betting, regulation, and industry innovation for CasinoBeats. His coverage includes tax increases in the UK, covering breaking stories in the ever-evolving landscape of US betting such as the...
Read Full BioPrediction market platforms have grown increasingly popular, with the mantra that they allow users to predict anything. Predictions, by their nature, should be about future events. However, Kalshi and Polymarket are allowing users to trade on pre-taped episodes of popular TV shows, including Survivor.
Note: This article may contain spoilers for anyone who wants to watch Survivor without knowing what is likely to happen.
The markets suggest that many users already know the results. Survivor was filmed in June last year. Contestants have to sign strict Non-Disclosure Agreements (NDAs) that prohibit revealing in-game results, cast information, or filming details, with potential penalties of up to $5 million.
It appears some of the information may have leaked, however. Ahead of the most recent episode, the market clearly predicted that Mike White would leave the show, which he did.
In addition to wagering on which contestant will leave the show, users can also wager on what participants will say during each episode.
Similar markets are available on other shows or videos. One of MrBeast’s editors was found to be wagering on what he would say in his YouTube videos and has been sanctioned by Kalshi. Incidentally, MrBeast has appeared in Survivor this season as a celebrity guest.
The show is not scheduled to reach its finale until May, but the winner has already been decided. And Kalshi users appear to be aware of this. One contestant currently has a 91% chance of winning. Almost $10 million has been traded on that market.
At Polymarket, the same contestant has an 89% chance of winning, with far less traded at around $478,000.
It is unclear whether the show’s creators have authorized wagering on it. Previously, Survivor creator Mark Burnett filed a lawsuit against Jim Early, who was exposed as leaking information about the show on the website SurvivorSucks.com.
The charges were dropped after Early provided an email allegedly confirming that contestant Russell Hantz was the source of the spoilers. Hantz has denied the allegations and has not faced any legal action.
Legal Gray Area
Kalshi’s market rules explicitly prohibit anyone who works on the show and contestants from wagering on markets. Survivor’s NDAs also forbid crew members and participants from directly informing anyone of the results. It creates several legal gray areas where insiders may be able to work out the results without explicitly violating Kalshi or Survivor’s rules.
For example, a group of lawyers told the New York Times that it would probably be legal for someone to wager on the markets even if their neighbor was a contestant on the show and had recently bought a new sports car. As long as the contestant did not directly pass on information that they had in fact won.
If you asked the contestant whether they won and they winked, that could be construed as passing on insider information, which is illegal. While Kalshi has insisted it is working to combat insider trading, opening these markets could create problems.
In the UK, betting companies have offered odds on politics, entertainment, and a whole range of markets that are now becoming available in the US through prediction markets. They have, however, not offered odds on pre-recorded television shows.
Lawmakers Want Markets Restricted
The markets may not be available in the US for much longer. Lawmakers have introduced legislation that proposes prohibiting platforms from allowing users to trade on events where a person either knows the outcome in advance or has complete control over it.
The Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act also seeks to clarify that markets on government actions, terrorism, war, and assassination are prohibited.
One of the bill’s sponsors, Sen. Chris Murphy, stated, “There’s no getting around the fact that any prediction market where somebody knows or controls the outcome of a bet is ripe for corruption.”
They also might ruin your favorite show.
