A group campaigning against prediction markets has taken out a series of ads in Washington, DC, and launched a website with the tagline ‘Kalshi Lies‘.
FairPredicts describes itself as “a nonpartisan market integrity watchdog that will work to shine a light on the statements and actions of prediction market operators through research, data, and storytelling.”
The group has not declared who is funding its efforts, but has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on the ad campaign against Kalshi.
Ads Mimic Kalshi Campaign
The ads, which appeared in Washington, D.C., ahead of a Senate hearing on sporting integrity, were designed in the same way as Kalshi’s billboards.
You aren't trading against your neighbor. You're trading against trillion-dollar market makers.
— FairPredicts (@FairPredicts) May 20, 2026
Our ad campaign is live across Washington, DC highlighting the TRUTH about Kalshi. pic.twitter.com/mgB1Nr3fbz
Kalshi launched an ad campaign in March with several declarations, including one that stated, “We aren’t the house”.
In a post on X, the company added, “Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange where you trade against other users. We make money on transaction fees, not market settlements.”
FairPredicts says this is a lie.
Kalshi Claims Casino Interests Funding Attack
Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana claimed the group is funded by casino interests.
“Smells like a casino-led effort,” Diana stated. “Prediction markets are fair, transparent, and open. Casinos limit winners (unfair), price with algorithms (opaque), and set the odds themselves (closed). FairPredicts or UnfairPredicts?”
While Kalshi does not set the odds, it does operate an in-house trading team, Kalshi Trading. Additionally, its partners include market makers that provide liquidity.
“Like any financial market, including the stock market, market makers are industry standard because they help bootstrap liquidity,” said Diana. “But on most liquid markets, institutional market makers are not a large percent of volume. On Kalshi, it’s about 7 percent or lower.”
Small Group Making Big Profit
The website KalshiLies.com, run by FairPredicts, claims that market makers, including Kalshi Trading, Susquehanna, and Jump Trading, are taking the majority of trades. Susquehanna became Kalshi’s first institutional market maker in 2024, and Jump Trading took an equity stake in the company earlier this year.
FairPredict alleges that 67% of all profits on leading prediction market platforms are captured by 0.1% of accounts. It adds that fewer than 2,000 users have netted nearly half a billion dollars.
DraftKings co-founder Matt Kalish has also launched a social media attack on Kalshi this week. He similarly claims that Kalshi is duping users into believing it is a peer-to-peer exchange and that market makers are dominating the platform.
KALSHI IS “NOT THE HOUSE”
— Matt Kalish (@mattkalish) May 21, 2026
*BUT*
Kalshi have a very friendly 🙂 in house market maker called “Kalshi Trading” integrated with Kalshi that *could* but def WOULD NOT use all their data to decide if they want to cherry pick tasty bets from app normies like me to profit but def DONT
Kalish also says that Kalshi provides user-identifying data to market makers, who can then choose whether to provide liquidity. This would allow market makers to function like a sportsbook, which routinely limit winning bettors.
Kalish left DraftKings earlier this year after fourteen years at the company. Since his departure, the company has been increasing its focus on prediction markets, including launching parlays earlier this month.
