Survivor host Jeff Probst had to apologize after he mistakenly spoiled part of the season finale this week. Probst revealed that one of the contestants would exit the show before it was officially revealed. For many, the results had already been spoiled. Kalshi’s markets on the pre-taped show had effectively declared the winner seven months ago.
Kalshi, while confirming it is investigating insider trading on the markets, still insisted that it was more likely that users had simply speculated about the results online.
Robert Denault, Kalshi’s Head of Enforcement, posted on X, “We continue to investigate insider trading in Survivor markets, but the below still holds true: so far, no traders with large positions seem to have a relationship to the show or to the network. Thousands of traders took early positions consistent with the outcome, likely because of public rumors. And public rumors don’t equal insider information.”
Users Challenge Kalshi Assertion
A user on X questioned the company on its assertion that insiders did not do the trading.
The evidence we’ve reviewed led us to the subreddit “SpoiledSurvivor” (which has 71k weekly visitors). A Redditor who has successfully predicted the outcome of the last few Survivor seasons made a post 7 months ago (before Kalshi’s Survivor market was even live) claiming Aubry…
— robertjdenault (@robertjdenault) May 21, 2026
Denault said the trading likely came from users on the “SpoiledSurvivor” subreddit, where the user ‘lifetimerobot’ said they thought Aubry would win seven months ago. According to posts on Reddit, they have correctly predicted the winner in three previous seasons.
“They’re deflecting the blame onto lifetimerobot instead of the obvious insiders that were on that market,” wrote one user.
Others similarly said they firmly believe insider trading was happening at Kalshi.
“There is obviously insider trading,” wrote one user. “There was never the level of Cirie support on Kalshi that reflected what we saw on this sub. And don’t get me started on the episode-by-episode insider trading spikes for boots after screeners.”
Since the market was launched at Kalshi, Aubry, the eventual winner, was given an overwhelming chance of victory.
Cirie, who users say garnered a lot of support in the subreddit, did receive some support in Kalshi’s market. Her chances of winning rose to over 20% last month before falling again as the season moved to its conclusion.
Episode Market Flip Points Against Insider Trading
In total, over $32 million was traded on the winner market. Kalshi also offered markets on weekly eliminations, which usually accurately predicted who would leave the show.
The company noted, however, that episode 11 saw the original favorite to be eliminated, Cirie, stay. The market gave Cirie an 80% chance of leaving a day before the episode aired. The odds dramatically flipped shortly before the episode in which Ozzy and Emily were eliminated.
Over $870,000 was traded on the market. The odds flip would suggest that insiders were not taking positions in this market, at least not until the day of the episode. It’s also possible that some insiders only received information on the day the show aired.
Minnesota Bans Markets, CFTC Defends With Lawsuit
Survivor contestants have to sign strict Non-Disclosure Agreements (NDAs) that prohibit revealing in-game results, cast information, or filming details, with potential penalties of up to $5 million.
However, with the show filmed far in advance, leaks are always possible. A group of lawyers told the New York Times that it would probably be legal for someone to wager on the markets even if their neighbor was a contestant on the show and had recently bought a new sports car. As long as the contestant did not directly pass on information that they had in fact won.
Some lawmakers want to restrict the markets, including Minnesota, which recently banned any wagering on entertainment event contracts, as well as sports and other markets.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sued the state, alleging that it is overstepping its boundaries by attempting to regulate a federally licensed exchange. The CFTC particularly objected to Minnesota’s ban on weather-based markets, which it says are essential to farmers’ risk hedging.
Members of Congress have also introduced legislation that would prohibit wagering on markets where outcomes are already known. Sen. Chris Murphy, one of the sponsors of the BETS OFF Act, said, “Any prediction market where somebody knows or controls the outcome of a bet is ripe for corruption”.
It remains unclear if the Survivor markets were hijacked by insiders or if, as Kalshi suggests, it was merely online speculation fueling the trades.
