False Polymarket Post Coincides With Spike in WNBA Betting Volume

Crypto prediction platform Polymarket has drawn attention after posting a false rumor ahead of a recent WNBA game involving the Golden State Valkyries, which coincided with surging activity on one of the platform’s trending markets: whether a sex toy would be thrown onto the court during a WNBA game.

Prediction market platforms like Polymarket (currently illegal in the US, but that’s likely to change) have gained popularity by allowing users to trade contracts on various real-world events, such as politics, celebrities, and the weather.

The WNBA has recently witnessed three incidents where fans have tossed brightly colored sex toys onto courts during matchups of the Atlanta Dream, Golden State Valkyries, Chicago Sky, and Indiana Fever.

As the incidents went viral, user activity and trading volume on Polymarket surged.

False Claim Shared on Game Day

On the morning of the Valkyries’ August 6 game against the Las Vegas Aces, Polymarket posted what it claimed to be breaking news that there would be a “no-bag policy” during the game. The post claimed the move was an attempt to crack down on the bizarre trend.

The post gained traction on social media, prompting some media outlets to write stories about it. In addition, it was trending in discussions under Polymarket markets, such as whether someone will throw a sex toy on a specific date or by a set deadline.

Valkyries’ communications director, Morgan Randolph, told news outlet SFGATE that the reports were false. In fact, the team had announced that it was giving away clear backpacks to the first 10,000 fans in attendance.

Polymarket’s Active Markets on WNBA Disruptions

Polymarket launched several markets related to WNBA incidents as they gained attention.

One was resolved after the third incident on August 5 at a volume of over $180,000. Meanwhile, the current trending market is at a volume of nearly $170,000.

Additionally, active markets for each specific date have collected a total volume of $130,000. Notably, the volume has more than doubled in recent days.

The now-closed August 6 market alone reached over $74,000, the highest single-day volume for this topic.

As the WNBA incidents are gaining attention, the odds at Polymarket on the topic have begun to shift. According to trading data, the current trending market has seen a 14% decline in probability over the past 24 hours.

However, for many traders, that drop signals a greater potential payout, and possibly, renewed interest.

Polymarket is Currently Illegal in the US

Polymarket has not operated in the US since 2022. Then, it exited the country after it received a fine of $1.4 million from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for offering unregistered prediction markets.

Still, many speculate that while it officially geo-blocks US users, it allows access via VPN. That had prompted the CFTC and the Department of Justice (DOJ) to open an investigation.

However, Polymarket is likely re-entering the US. In July, it announced that the DOJ and CFTC had dropped their investigation into potential violations involving US-based customers.

Less than a week later, Polymarket announced the acquisition of QCEX, a derivatives exchange and clearinghouse licensed by the CFTC for $112 million.

Acquiring an already licensed platform gives Polymarket a legal foundation to re-enter the US and saves it years of licensing procedures.
The company has not announced when it will officially launch in the US. Still, many point out it will likely try to do so before the start of football season.

Polymarket also offers sports event markets, which are facing controversy in the US. Rival platform Kalshi is currently involved in several legal battles with state gambling regulators over its legality. Sports event contracts have rapidly become a significant part of both platforms’ business.