Lynnae Williams Journalist
Lynnae is a journalist covering the intersection of technology, culture, and gambling. She has more than five years of experience as a writer and editor, with bylines at SlashGear and MakeUseOf. On the iGaming side,...
Read Full BioIsrael’s security agencies are investigating whether an insider with access to classified information used that knowledge to place a series of wagers on Polymarket that accurately predicted Israeli military operations in Iran. According to Jewish Breaking News, Israel’s public broadcaster Kan News reported on the situation during its main evening newscast.
Officials from the country’s security apparatus, including the Israel Defense Forces, Military Intelligence, and the Shin Bet, have held internal discussions about the timely, high-stakes bets placed on Polymarket. Those bets were on the mark about the timing and scope of Israel’s military action in June 2025. An anonymous Polymarket user placed wagers that totaled tens of thousands of dollars, ultimately netting more than $150,000 in profits.
While authorities have not opened a formal criminal investigation and investigators have not publicly identified a suspect, the matter is being reviewed at senior levels within Israel’s security establishment. Officials said the review is ongoing and that they haven’t reached a conclusion about whether classified information was leaked or whether any laws were broken.
Bets Predicted Timing & Scope of Military Actions
According to the reports, the suspicious bets were placed on several Polymarket contracts tied to military action against Iran. The bettor correctly predicted multiple outcomes with unusually precise timing, including:
- That Israel would carry out a strike against Iran on a Friday
- That the operation would occur before the end of June 2025
- That Israeli authorities would publicly signal the end of the operation by July
- That military action would take place before July
Each of those predictions was correct, prompting concerns within Israel’s security agencies that the bettor may have had access to classified information. The reports note that the bets were placed in June 2025, before any official confirmation from the Israeli government that the military would intervene in Iran.
The lack of official findings hasn’t stopped social media users from trying to identify the account in question. Open Source Intel posted screenshots on X that it claimed showed the Polymarket account involved in the suspicious trade.
Beyond the online speculation, Israeli officials haven’t confirmed the identity or background of the Polymarket user and have stressed that no determination has been made as to whether the individual is connected to the country’s defense or intelligence agencies.
Case Adds to Debate Over Insider Trading
The Israeli review comes as the public and lawmakers in the United States have expressed concerns that public officials could abuse their positions of trust by using nonpublic information to place bets on prediction markets like Polymarket.
Critics have likened this activity to insider trading, especially when the event contracts are associated with sensitive geopolitical or security-related events. The issue came to a head in the U.S. after traders on Polymarket’s international platform earned six-figure payouts by correctly anticipating the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro just hours before a covert U.S. operation became public.
Blockchain analysis showed that newly created wallets placed large positions shortly before the Maduro operation, renewing debate over whether government insiders could exploit their advanced knowledge of real-world developments to profit from prediction markets.
In response to the suspicious activity, in early January, Ritchie Torres (D-NY) introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, which would make it illegal for federal officials to bet on prediction markets when they possess or could obtain nonpublic information related to those contracts.
At the state level, Democratic Assemblymember Phil Steck introduced a similar bill on January 21. Steck’s proposal would update New York’s Public Officers Law to bar state agency employees, lawmakers, and legislative staff from using information gained through their official roles to place bets on prediction markets or sportsbooks.
