Lynnae Williams Journalist
Lynnae is a journalist covering the intersection of technology, culture, and gambling. She has more than five years of experience as a writer and editor, with bylines at SlashGear and MakeUseOf. On the iGaming side,...
Read Full BioIn the latest attempt to rein in prediction markets, congressional Democrats have introduced yet another bill to crack down on the controversial platforms.
On Tuesday, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) and Rep. Greg Casar (D-TX) introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act. The announcement came less than a week after Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) rolled out his own proposed bill, the Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act of 2026, on March 11.
The bicameral legislation would ban wagers on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and other events where a person either knows the outcome in advance or has complete control over it.
In the press release announcing the bill, Murphy argued that “any prediction market where somebody knows or controls the outcome of a bet is ripe for corruption,” while Casar said the exchanges are becoming “yet another place for rich and powerful people to cash in on insider information.”
The lawmakers acknowledge that many of the event contracts the bill targets are traded on offshore prediction markets and said the proposed legislation would target payment systems used by illegal online operators, as well as people in the United States who promote or help run those businesses.
BETS OFF Targets Markets Lawmakers Say Reward Insider Knowledge
Murphy’s and Casar’s pitch is that the BETS OFF Act is a necessary response to suspicious trading on prediction markets in the lead-up to major geopolitical events.
The lawmakers pointed to the unusually well-timed bets placed through anonymous accounts in the hours before U.S. military strikes in Iran and the detention of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. They said those trades raised questions about whether officials within the Trump administration or those close to it had profited from their access to sensitive information.
The bill doesn’t stop at making it illegal to place, accept, or facilitate a wager on terrorism, assassination, war, government actions, and other non-financial events where the outcome is either known in advance or controlled by a person.
It also creates new enforcement tools that would allow the attorney general to seek injunctive relief against violators of the proposed law. While the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and existing CFTC regulations already cover some event contracts related to war, terrorism, assassination, gaming, and unlawful activity, the BETS OFF Act would take that a step further.
It creates a standalone federal prohibition, tying the conduct to existing anti-gambling laws, and preventing registered entities from listing those contracts or making them available for clearing or trading.
Lawmakers Say Insider Risks Go Beyond War Markets
Speaking about the proposed bill during a press conference on Tuesday, Murphy and Casar were clear that the legislation isn’t limited to policing foreign-policy markets. The lawmakers highlighted the Super Bowl as another example of how insider knowledge and leaks can make prediction markets unfair.
“If you bet on who’s performing at the Super Bowl halftime show and lose your money to someone who controlled the answer, you’re getting ripped off,” said Casar.
Murphy emphasized that the people who benefit from inside information aren’t “regular people,” they’re the rich and connected.
“The people who know who’s going to perform at the Super Bowl, the people who know what words the President is going to use in a speech, are very powerful people,” he said.
