What will Kalshi users bet on if the day comes when prediction markets can’t offer sports-event contracts? The weather?
It sure appears that way based on an examination of Kalshi trading volume from January 1 to April 20 of this year. Two of Kalshi’s most popular non-sports markets involve daily high/low temperature and precipitation.
Colleague Alex Weldon did the deep dive into the data, and trading volume at Kalshi has averaged about $3,056,405 a day across both weather-related markets since the start of the year. One interesting tidbit: when it comes to precipitation, Kalshi bettors traded much more with the potential for snow during the winter months.
The high-water mark came on January 4 with $5,401,881 in trading volume on precipitation. Since the calendar flipped to March, the highest trading volume of $453,231 was recorded on April 7.
UFC’s Trading Volume Mirrors Weather Markets
As a point of comparison, we looked for a niche sport with comparable trading volume at Kalshi. UFC tracked well in a head-to-head comparison with the combined weather markets.
UFC betting averaged $2,903,762 in daily trading volume from January 1 to April 20, roughly equivalent to the weather markets.
Predictably, betting on the UFC was higher around the actual events. The biggest trading day came on April 11 for UFC 327 in Miami, which generated $45,019,798 in trading volume
We also looked at a broader range of sports to compare their trading volumes. UFC’s numbers are modest compared to the NBA, which saw daily trading volume of $100M+ on eight occasions.
On Tuesday, the NBA recorded $146,947,748 in trades the day after our monitoring period ended. That year-to-date high came with three playoff games on the schedule: Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics, Portland Trailblazers vs. San Antonio Spurs, and Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers.
Here’s the data on sports trading volumes from the start of the year through April 20:
| Sport | Daily Trading Volume |
| NBA | $69,180,261 |
| PGA | $11,579,225 |
| UFC | $2,903,762 |
| Formula 1 | $141,059 |
| Cricket | $117,123 |
| Rugby | $3,782 |
The PGA’s trading volume spiked significantly during the week of The Masters (April 6-12), with $107,579,136 traded on the tournament’s final day. Last week’s RBC Heritage Classic in Hilton Head concluded on April 19 and generated $18,623,390 in trading volume.
During the week of The Masters, sports accounted for 85.8% of Kalshi’s total trading volume. That number dropped to 82.5% last week, but it’s clear that sports remain the lifeblood for prediction markets.
