By its nature, gambling only functions when the majority of users lose money. Companies would soon have to shut up shop if bettors regularly beat the bookies. That does not stop people from trying, however, and there is a rare group of professional gamblers who make a living taking money from gambling companies.
In 2024, Americans wagered (and lost) more than ever, staking almost $150 billion, generating $13.7 billion in revenue for betting operators. Revenue for operators means losses for customers. But not everyone has to lose. Through smart strategies and analysis, you can be one of the rare ones to beat the sportsbook, according to Robert H. Scott III and Mikhail Sher.
Scott and Sher primarily work as professors in the economics and business departments at Monmouth University. But a recent paper presentation at the International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking, held in Las Vegas, caught my attention.
“Beat the Sportsbook: The Theory and Practice of Successful Sports Betting” is the working title of a book they say will be released next spring.
I talked with them to learn more about the quantitative and qualitative strategies that help sports bettors overcome the inherent odds disadvantage and achieve both theoretical (expected value) and practical (actual results) positive returns on their wagers.
How the Bookies Beat You
Before getting into ways that you can beat the bookies, Scott stressed that it’s important to be aware of the ways that the bookies usually beat you.
“We make irrational emotional decisions, and these sportsbooks are great at exploiting those psychological tendencies,” Scott said.
“For example, if they know you live in Philadelphia, they’re gonna push crazy bets on the Eagles and the Phillies. They know that fans are suckers for that stuff.”
“It’s a financial game in part, but it’s also a psychological game, so one thing that we’re including in the book is helping people understand that human beings aren’t rational.”
Sportsbooks are facing a string of lawsuits over claims that they purposefully encourage problem gambling. Scott and Sher stressed it is essential that users are more aware of the traps companies set to avoid falling into them.
Despite knowing this, Scott admits he still falls for the occasional sucker bet, such as wagering on the Knicks to beat the Spurs during Game 3.
“I knew it was dumb,” he says. “I knew I was going against my own sort of golden rule, but I did it because I could. I’m up this year, and it’s fun. It adds extra excitement to the game to get behind your team. But the sportsbooks eat that up.”
In the UK, the responsible gambling message used to be “When the fun stops, stop.” Research suggests it was not effective at reducing gamblers’ losses. It was replaced by “Take Time To Think,” which Scott and Sher advocate.
Take Time to Think About the Odds
“Mikhail and I spent a lot of time talking about that, you know, the bet has to make sense,” Scott adds. “You can’t be emotionally involved.”
Sher says he has won over $200,000 from gambling. One of the main challenges now is not picking winning bets, but rather dealing with sportsbook limits.
“I’ve become more motivated to share the knowledge since it became harder and harder to take advantage of it myself with account limits,” Sher says.
One of the biggest ways sportsbooks generate profits is from pushing parlays on users. These are bad bets because the odds are so against the player, Sher stresses.
“If we are talking about most casino games, you generally know that in blackjack, a player playing somewhat close to the optimal basic strategy only gives up a 1 to 3% edge to the casino. Single-game parlay bets or parlays with a lot of bets will sometimes give up 25-30% juice to the casino. People don’t know the mathematics of that bet; they don’t know what juice they’re paying.”
If you are not an accomplished mathemetician that can calculate the odds, Scott and Sher say keep your betting simple. Stick to moneylines or spreads, and you can clearly see how much leverage a sportsbook has on your wager.
Sher gives an example of a potential World Cup knockout tie between England and the Netherlands. If England is -145 and the Netherlands is +125, then the sportsbook has a 4.5% advantage. That is a fairer split, but if the odds on England move to -165, then it starts to look like a rip-off, and you should not take the bet.
Arbitrage Betting
One of the most powerful winning strategies, Sher says, is arbitrage betting. That is when wagering on all outcomes with appropriate weighting will guarantee a profit.
It’s becoming more difficult, but Sher says he can still catch arbitrages today. One of the best times is when there are many sports events at once.
There are some chances to do this pre-game, but even more opportunities for in-play betting. Sportsbooks have been accused of encouraging problem gambling by offering more and more in-play bets, but they also present opportunities for gamblers.
“So, for example, I do very well in NCAA basketball, especially during Saturdays or March Madness,” Sher adds. “When there are dozens of games happening at the same time, sportsbooks struggle to quickly adjust the lines in all of those games. As a result, a bettor can find the opportunities where they can guarantee themselves a profit on both sides.”
With limits on most of his accounts now, the amount of profit he can guarantee becomes much smaller. Then, instead of balancing the arb, he goes with the side with expected value, another concept that can help bettors.
Expected Value
“In expected value, we try to calculate the true value of a bet,” Sher explains. “In the World Cup example, if the Netherlands is +125 and England is -145, then the true expected value is in the middle. I’m not going to dive into the math too much, but if it’s +125 and -145, then the value is not going to be 135; it’s going to be around +133.5 to +134 because the negative side is going to be more heavily juiced.”
“If you can get England at better odds than the true value, then that’s going to be plus expected value. Then that’s a smart bet.”
So, how do you identify the true expected value?
Scott gives the example of buying a Powerball lottery ticket, where the odds of winning are clear. “If the odds of winning are 300 million to one. And the jackpot is $400 million, the expected value is 1.33, but the ticket costs $2. So, that’s a negative expected value and not a great deal.”
“But, if the jackpot rises to $600 or even $800 million, then that creates a positive expected value.”
That was the case with the Texas lottery in 2023 when a gambling syndicate identified high expected value when the jackpot rose to $95 million, but all ticket combinations could be purchased for $25 million. Texas was then forced to reform its ticket-buying system.
Most casual gamblers will not have $25 million at their disposal to cover all combinations, but the important thing is identifying cases where the odds are in your favor.
“You’re not going to win all those bets, but in the long run, if you place a lot of bets with positive expected value, then you’re going to be net positive,” Scott says.
Find Sharp Bookies to Identify Expected Value
In the lottery example, it is more clear-cut; there are a limited number of combinations, so you can accurately calculate the chances of one combination winning. In sports, what are the actual chances that England will win against the Netherlands? It is a more subjective call.
So, how do you calculate expected value in those cases?
“Something that I found over the years is that when I use quantitative tools rather than qualitative opinions, I happen to do better,” Sher says.
“One of my best strategies had been using Pinnacle or using a consensus of several sharp books.”
Then, you find examples of books that are not sharp in their lines, particularly in certain sports. Going back to college basketball, Sher says Caesars or William Hill are often out of sync with the sharp books when they release their lines and spreads.
“For example, the University of Connecticut is hosting the University of Pittsburgh, and on that line, UConn is -2.5 points on William Hill, but then if I look on the sharper sports books, if I look on Pinnacle, if I look on Circa, UConn is -4.5. So then I go to William Hill and place as big a bet as they’ll allow me because I trust the sharp books.”
“That was a very consistent source of profit,” Sher says. “William Hill is pretty sharp on soccer, but they’re really not sharp on US college basketball.”
That may change now that Caesars has acquired Westgate in Vegas, a traditionally sharp sportsbook.
Identifying which bookies tend to be more accurate in their opening lines and spreads, and which tend to get things wrong, can help you find an edge. This varies by sports and can change as new traders come in, or companies change ownership, so it’s important to always monitor and analyze.
Identify Your Expertise
Another way you might find an edge is by being particularly knowledgeable about a specific sport. Sher says he has pretty good knowledge of boxing and UFC.
He gives the example of the initial odds on Justin Gaethje to beat Ilia Topuria in the UFC this weekend.
“I think that Justin Gaethje has a lot of knockout power, and I felt that when the fight initially opened, and I could get +500 on Gaethje, that was too much of a line on a fighter that has a puncher’s chance.”
“Additionally, this is UFC White House. Gaethje is an American fighter, and Topiura is a Georgian fighter. If the fight goes to a scorecard, I feel like Gaethje might get some favorable calls if it’s at least somewhat close.”
By taking the early odds, Sher can also get good closing line value. Gaethje’s price is likely to come down, so anyone betting on him before the fight will be getting lower odds. At the time of writing, he was +380 at DraftKings, for example.
Sher stresses again that this does not mean the bet will win, but if he has Gaethje at +500 and he starts the fight at +350, then he is getting good value for his bet. If he were not limited on his stakes, he could also trade out of the position to guarantee profit.
Analyze Your Bets & Identify Trends
The trouble is, many casual sports fans believe they are knowledgeable when, in fact, they are not very good at predicting results. It is absolutely essential to analyze your bets and identify your true strengths and weaknesses, Scott stresses.
You can also try to identify trends. Scott gives an example of a recent investigation. He became interested in how baseball players perform on their birthdays.
“Turns out, there are only a couple of players who tend to overperform on their birthday. One was Barry Bonds, and another, whose birthday is coming up in July, is Mike Trout.”
AI can make it easier to find answers to these trends, but Scott admits that making a living from professional gambling is not easy.
“99% of the information Mikhail and I look at isn’t helpful,” he says. “I tell people, it’d be way easier to go to college, medical school, become an orthopedic surgeon, make a million dollars a year to become a multi-millionaire than it is to become a professional sports gambler.”
It’s even harder now in the US, as gamblers can only deduct 90% of gambling losses from winnings before paying tax on the remainder. When placing lots of bets with expected value, you should expect many to lose, but in the long run, you can generate a profit. Those profits will now be eaten up by more taxes.
Gamble Aware
The main takeaway Scott and Sher want readers to get from their book is to be more aware of the risks around gambling.
“We want to educate the public about sports betting, the true cost of your bets, and how to maximize the value,” Scott tells me in his “closing statement” of our interview.
“People are very aware of the risks of smoking, for example. If you smoke, you know you will have a higher chance of getting lung cancer. So we’re saying, look, you know, you’re not gonna smoke and go unharmed. Just like you’re not gonna bet on sports just casually and suddenly be a multi-millionaire.”
“There are dangers involved, but if you’re smart and you’re conscientious, unlike smoking, you can have an upside, and the downsides don’t have to be negative.”
