Australia and Paraguay played out a 0-0 stalemate, while Sweden and Japan drew 1-1 in their final group games at the World Cup yesterday.
Paraguay is not yet assured of a spot in the next round, but will almost certainly join Sweden, Japan, and Australia as one of the best third-placed teams. With a draw enough for all teams, Polymarket users made millions of dollars wagering on the World Cup matches.
The highest profit of the day was from user sparklingwater123. The account shows a $6.8 million wager on Japan not to beat Sweden, which returned over $11.5 million.
The account, which only started trading yesterday, has already amassed a total profit of almost $8.5 million.
Other Account Makes $2.7 Million
The user weatherman12, meanwhile, made $2.7 million for the day. They wagered $148,000 on Australia vs. Paraguay to end level before the match, when it was given a 40% chance. Bookies had made the draw the favorite as it emerged that a point would be sufficient for both teams to progress.
The user then bet a further $1.6 million on the game to end in a draw during the match, when it had a 78% chance of ending level.
The real moneymaker was betting there would be fewer than 2.5 goals in Japan vs. Sweden. The user bet almost $2 million at a 49% chance, resulting in total winnings of over $2.7 million for the day.
The user’s account had been down $2.4 million before the trades on the matches. The full history can be viewed on Polymarket, which shows frequent trades on soccer matches. It is unclear whether the user is an individual or represents a larger institution.
Big Profits From Betting Draws
The wins yesterday are the latest in a series of big bets on draws at this summer’s World Cup. One user collected $7.5 million in winnings with a $6 million bet on Czechia to tie with South Africa. It was the largest single-event sports payout ever on the platform.
Previously, a user also won $4.7 million on a $427,952 bet on Spain to draw with Cape Verde.
More profits could be had on backing draws on Friday and Saturday as teams wrap up the final group games. Austria and Algeria know that a point will be enough to see them both through, and the bookies are making the tie the favorite at current odds of around +120.
The chance of a draw rose from 32% earlier this week to 45% at Kalshi. Algeria were famously dumped out of the 1982 World Cup after Austria played out a 1-0 loss to West Germany. The country may be out for revenge and could send Austria home if they win.
Tonight, Egypt plays Iran, and a point could see the Egyptians top the group and send Iran through. It is priced at around +160, a 38% chance at Polymarket, up from 28% a few days ago. Egypt remains the slight favorite. If Belgium beats New Zealand convincingly in the other game, then Egypt may require a victory to finish top.
As more groups finish, the exact requirement for the third-place teams in the remaining groups will become clear. It is a consequence of the expanded format that FIFA may have to address in the future.
After the 1982 incident, labeled the disgrace of Gijon, all final group games now kick off at the same time. Doing this across 12 groups seems infeasible, but a more balanced number of teams, such as expanding the tournament to 64, could solve some problems.
