Californians Show New Openness to Sports Betting, but Tribes Still Hold the Cards

Years after resounding defeats at the ballot box, California voters may finally be warming to sports betting. A new POLITICO–Citrin Center–Possibility Lab survey shows that 60% of voters now support legalization, signaling a shift in one of the nation’s largest untapped gambling markets.

For California to legalize sports betting, a proposal must be placed on the ballot. Some experts suggest that this could be achieved by 2026, while others argue that there’s not enough time and sports betting might have to wait for a later date.

The Numbers, Up Close

The poll of more than 1,400 registered voters found that 60% would support legalization. Out of those, 25% believe sports betting should be legal and is long overdue. Meanwhile, 35% say it “might make sense” but needed more details.

Support is stronger among men than women, with 64% open to legalization, compared to 55%.

Out of the 40% that did not support legalization, most expressed concerns about the rise in gambling addiction. About 21% said they’re “wary of legalization,” while 19% believed it would be a “huge mistake.”

Past Failures Still Cast a Shadow

The new numbers come against the backdrop of California’s crushing defeats in 2022, when voters rejected two competing ballot initiatives.

Proposition 26, which would have legalized in-person wagering on tribal lands, failed in every county, receiving about 30% support.
Meanwhile, Proposition 27, which proposed legalizing online sports betting, fared even worse. Only about 17% of voters supported the measure, making it one of the most lopsided defeats in state history.

The campaign battle saw the tribes and sports betting operators collectively spend over $400 million. Even the California Legislature opposed Proposition 27, with both Republicans and Democrats voicing opposition.

After the substantial 2022 defeats, sports betting was not on the 2024 ballot.

Spring Talks Bring Sportsbooks & Tribes Together

This spring, there were signs of thaw in the often-bitter relationship between sportsbook operators and California’s tribes.

At the Indian Gaming Tradeshow and Convention, DraftKings CEO Jason Robins and FanDuel President Christian Genetski acknowledged that they accepted what tribal leaders were saying in 2022: That the tribes must lead online sports betting in California.

“I’m not going to sit here and say we don’t make mistakes — we’ve made many mistakes,” Robins said. “But I think those who partner with us, and those like you who’ve gotten to know us, understand we really do care and we want to do it the right way … Having tribal relationships and partnerships is absolutely essential — there’s no other way to do it here.”

Meanwhile, Gantski has previously said that the 2022 initiative was “a well-intentioned but uninformed and misguided attempt.”

Ideas floated included creating a tribal advisory board and even a unified tribal governing body to oversee online betting.

Some insiders suggested a new ballot initiative could be ready for 2026. However, with more than 100 federally recognized tribes in California, building consensus remains a daunting challenge.

Tribes Draw Hard Lines on Unregulated Gambling

Native American tribes remain the power players in California’s gambling industry. They’ve made their stance loud and clear: nothing advances without their control.

That position has extended beyond sports betting to other unregulated forms of gambling, which have grown in popularity due to the lack of legal options.

The tribes have engaged in a years-long battle with cardrooms, which offer games like blackjack and Pai Gow. Last year, a Senate bill granted them the power to sue the cardrooms, which they did; however, they recently suffered a setback.

Earlier this month, a County Court judge tentatively dismissed their lawsuit challenging cardrooms’ card games. Sacramento County Superior Court Judge Lauri Damrell ruled that the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA) preempts the tribes’ state-law claims.

The tribes have also backed a bill that bans sweepstakes casinos. While the measure has advanced through three Senate committees, recently, two tribes broke ranks and joined the opposition to the ban.

They claimed that the prohibition of the digital platforms will negatively impact them as they’re geographically isolated and cannot rely on casino revenue.

Another unregulated form of gambling targeted by the California tribes is prediction markets. In July, three tribes sued Kalshi and Robinhood. They argued that the two platforms are operating illegal sports betting on tribal lands, violating IGRA and threatening tribal sovereignty.

Furthermore, while not tribe-led, another effort was backed by them. In July, California’s Attorney General Rob Bonta issued a legal opinion stating that all forms of daily fantasy sports (DFS) are illegal in the state.

While it does not change the law, the opinion could influence lawmakers and courts’ decisions. Bonta has since warned that he will take action against platforms that continue to operate.

What Comes Next

While public opinion may be shifting, the political reality remains unchanged: California’s tribes will ultimately play a primary role in determining whether sports betting becomes legal in the state.

The POLITICO poll suggests that voters might be ready to embrace sports betting, but until tribal leaders (and potentially sportsbook operators) endorse a framework, the chances of legalization remain uncertain.