The prediction market provider Kalshi’s new Bitcoin perpetual futures contract is a sign that gaming and online casino users are becoming more comfortable with digital assets, say experts, as crypto exchanges find themselves at loggerheads.
The industry insiders spoke after Kalshi officially launched its Bitcoin perpetual contracts (perp) offering, marking a first for US firms. Unlike many other prediction market offerings, the new contracts are cash-settled and will be pegged to Bitcoin spot prices.
The move comes just days after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) gave Kalshi’s Bitcoin contract the green light.
“[Kalshi’s move] shows that demand for fast, high-engagement digital markets is expanding beyond traditional crypto exchanges,” Ivan Muller, the Chief Marketing Officer at the sports betting and prediction platform Dexsport, told CasinoBeats.
Speaking to CNBC, Don Dolev, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Mizuho Americas, called prediction markets’ perps pivot “a defensive move.”
“Prediction market guys are saying [to crypto firms]: ‘You’re getting into prediction markets, so we’re getting into [crypto] perpetual futures,’” Dolev said.
Prediction Markets: Bitcoin Battle With Crypto Players Ahead?
Kalshi rival Polymarket announced the launch of its own perps offering in late April, with a beta version of the feature rolling out on May 28.
A day later, the CFTC also approved the crypto exchange Coinbase’s bid to connect its US clients to global crypto perpetuals.
While competition between crypto players and prediction markets operators begins to heat up, experts say there is still a gulf between the two industries.
“It’s unlikely that this will make the majority of users leave crypto exchanges, as they still offer deeper liquidity, a broader product range, and a large native trading audience,” Muller said.
However, Muller agreed that Kalshi’s launch of Bitcoin perps is “an unmistakable signal that crypto products are moving closer to traditional regulated financial infrastructure.”
Perps, unlike conventional futures contracts, do not have a fixed expiration date. That means that, as long as they maintain collateral, traders can keep their positions open on these contracts indefinitely.
In 2025, the world’s biggest centralized crypto exchanges saw perps volume balloon by almost 50% to reach the $86.2 trillion mark. A further $6.7 trillion in volume went through decentralized platforms.
The crypto analyst Jay Drain Junior, of a16z, wrote last month: “As the perps ecosystem matures, the question is no longer whether perps will scale; it’s who will build the most valuable applications and infrastructure around them as they do.”
Controversy Continues to Brew
Prediction markets-related developments continue to dominate headlines in the US.
Earlier this month, media outlets reported that the former Republican Senator George Santos is under investigation for “insider trading” on Kalshi.
Millions of dollars were traded in February on his attendance at the State of the Union address after Santos posted a video on X.
Santos ultimately did not attend, blaming transport issues.
In the pre-State of the Union video, Santos told his followers to “just chill,” as he would be at the address “in the gallery.”
The former senator has since been cagey about his use of Kalshi, refusing to confirm or deny trading on the platform.
President Donald Trump has also waded into the predictions market debate, expressing his support for the sector.
