The World Cup is now in full flow. Day 5 saw perhaps the biggest upset so far as tournament favorites Spain failed to beat debutants Cape Verde. Without even kicking a ball, France is the new favorite to take the trophy. They kick off their tournament today with a tricky matchup against Senegal.
Spain tripped up Gemini in our AI vs. human prediction competition. The bot has failed to pick a winner in four tips thus far. I have been asking Gemini and ChatGPT to recommend a bet each day to see how advanced the popular AI tools are in sports gambling.
Gemini showed early promise in a previous experiment, generating a 32.7% profit. ChatGPT suffered losses there, but has fared better in the World Cup. It remains in the negative, but its draw no bet picks have limited losses. It is now down $8, while Gemini is down $40.
I have also been pitting my wits against the tools, and over the last two days, I have picked winners to reverse initial losses. I am now up $19 from $40 staked after picking Saudi Arabia to get a result against Uruguay.
For Day 6, I asked the two bots to analyze their wagers from the previous day and make a new pick.
Gemini
Day 5 Pick: Spain -1.5 Asian Handicap (vs. Cabo Verde) & Iran vs. New Zealand Under 2.5 Goals (-109) LOST -$10
Spain fell completely victim to the Matchday 1 stagnation we’ve seen all week. Despite dominating possession, their final-third execution was lethargic, completely failing to break a disciplined Cabo Verde low block.
We expected a cagey, defensive mid-block chess match in Iran vs New Zealand. Instead, New Zealand scored a shocking opening goal in the 6th minute, forcing Iran out of their shell completely. The game turned completely chaotic, and once the tactical shape broke, the goals flowed freely.
Day 6 Pick: France to Win & Under 3.5 Match Goals (+110)
Betting France straight on the moneyline offers little value, but pairing a France victory with Under 3.5 Match Goals protects us from a 1-0 or 2-0 professional grind while utilizing France’s undeniable talent advantage over an organized but offensively limited Senegal squad.
Deschamps rarely allows his team to play chaotic, high-scoring end-to-end games in a group opener. If France takes a 1-0 or 2-0 lead, they will choke the life out of the ball, pass horizontally, and protect their physical energy for the rest of the group stage.
ChatGPT
Day 5 Pick: Iran Draw No Bet vs New Zealand (-285) NO BET $0
The Iran Draw No Bet pick was actually a good example of why that market has been preferable to moneylines in this tournament.
The broader trend is clear: This World Cup has been extremely draw-heavy. Among the picks we’ve discussed, three of the four matches involving favorites ended level. The lesson is to continue avoiding expensive moneylines and instead look for either Draw No Bet protection or totals markets where the match dynamics support them.
Day 6 Pick: France vs Senegal — Under 3.5 Goals (-270)
The tournament has repeatedly produced tighter games than expected, even when major powers are involved. Senegal are athletic, disciplined, and unlikely to allow France to run away with the match. A 1-0, 2-0, or 2-1 type game cashes this ticket.
Human (Me)
Day 5 Pick: Saudi Arabia or Tie vs Uruguay (+165) WON +$16.50
Uruguay seemed a short price to beat a Saudi team that beat Argentina in their opener at the last World Cup, and so it proved to be. Uruguay dominated possession, but lacked the cutting edge of old since Cavani, Suarez, and Forlan are out of the picture.
Day 6 Pick: Norway Win To Zero vs Iraq (-170)
With Norway’s firepower, Iraq will be expected to park the bus to stifle the likes of Erling Haaland. Norway netted 37 times in 8 qualifying matches, and a case could be made for them to win by a considerable margin here. However, Iraq tends not to concede many goals. Only once in their last 21 matches have they shipped more than two. At the other end, they also struggle to find the net. Venezuela, Jordan, and Algeria all won to zero in recent matches against the Iraqis. In qualifying, Norway kept clean sheets against Italy, Moldova, Estonia, and Israel. They should have little problem keeping Iraq at bay.
