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Read Full BioPrediction market platform Kalshi has announced a partnership with Brazil’s largest brokerage, XP, to expand into the country. The company is also ramping up efforts to get more women to use its platform. Yet, at the same time, Brazil’s President Lula used a speech on International Women’s Day to warn against gambling.
Kalshi announced its partnership with XP on X. The partnership will see the platform introduce event contracts focusing on economic events such as Brazil’s inflation and interest rates.
It marks the first international expansion for Kalshi, which announced ambitions to build a global audience in over 140 countries worldwide.
Co-founder Luana Lopes Lara, originally from Brazil, stated, “It makes sense for us to go through these international partners. They already have the customers, they have the brand.”
XP has around 4.8 million active clients and is the biggest brokerage firm in Brazil. However, it is seeking to diversify its business model as equity trading has declined post-COVID.
“When we saw prediction markets, we saw markets that could be not only innovative but disruptive,” Lucas Rabechini, head of financial products at XP, said.
Kalshi Targets Fast Expansion
Brazil does not have specific regulations for prediction markets, and it only created a regulated gambling market last year. As a result of those regulations, the country has drastically reduced the number of sports betting operators in the country.
It is unclear as yet whether Kalshi will launch its sports markets in the country. But Lopes Lara indicated they would, noting that the company is targeting faster expansion than in the US.
She added, “We see Brazil the way the US was years ago with prediction markets. It’s our second country, so we will be able to go a lot faster than we did in the US when starting.”
The company has exploded since launching sports markets last year and is now valued at around $20 billion. When announcing its plans to go international in October last year, it was valued at around $5 billion.
Kalshi Also Targets Young Women
Kalshi has also ramped up its efforts to attract girls to its platform, hiring online influencers and expanding its entertainment offerings. While the company says its strategy is successful, it has also faced criticism.
The Wall Street Journal published a piece on International Women’s Day focused on how Kalshi is targeting young women. For example, the platform pays online influencers, such as Gigi Alcaraz and Aggie Rozite, to promote prediction markets. The latter runs the company’s social media accounts, KalshiGirls on X and Instagram.
“The efforts are paying off; the company says women now account for 26% of users on its platform, up from 13% 10 months ago,” the article states.
While many articles on the WSJ are behind a paywall, this one is not. Although the newspaper has actually partnered with rival platform Polymarket.
Lopes Lara believes the male-dominant split will reduce. She said, “Ten years from now, I think the breakdown of the population on Kalshi is going to be a matchup of the breakdown of the population in the U.S.”
Lula Warns Women of Gambling Risks
As Kalshi looks to expand into Brazil and target young women, Brazilian President Lula used a speech on International Women’s Day to warn women about the risks of gambling.
He said that “although most” of those suffering gambling-related harm are men, “the burden falls disproportionately on women.”
“It’s money meant for food, rent, and children’s school that disappears on the cell phone screen,” he said, adding that the Brazilian government will work to limit the harm caused by online gambling.
He mainly discussed the risks of online casinos, and his views on Kalshi expanding into the country are unclear.
While he said gambling takes vital rent money away from women, Kalshi has run an ad campaign stating the opposite.
One TikTok ad shows a college-age girl behind the text, “POV: I was about to be unable to pay my rent, but I got two years of rent through Kalshi’s predictions. It’s amazing!”
The ad appears in one of the many lawsuits against Kalshi, arguing that the company is offering unlicensed gambling. As it expands internationally, it may face additional legal challenges.
Polymarket, which operates internationally, has drawn the wrath of regulators worldwide, most recently in the Netherlands. Countries have largely objected to its election markets. Kalshi, by partnering with a regulated exchange in XP, may hope to avoid the same level of backlash.
