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Read Full BioPrediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket traded over $200 million on a wide range of Oscars markets as Americans embrace the ability to bet on anything. The event far surpassed other recent awards ceremonies, such as the Grammys and Golden Globes. Even actors were placing bets.
Kevin O’Leary said he wagered $1,000 on his Marty Supreme co-star Timothee Chalamet to win best actor at Kalshi. Had he won, questions may have arisen about insider trading, but Michael B. Jordan took the award.
That was one of the few markets that users struggled to call. Jordan was the favorite at the start of the ceremony, with around a 55% chance. However, just a month ago, the market gave Chalamet a 78% chance of winning.
That was also one of the most traded awards, seeing over $25 million of trading volume at Kalshi and over $13 million at Polymarket.
Markets Accurately Predict 19 of 24 Winners
After the Golden Globes, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan championed prediction markets for accurately calling 26 of the 28 winners. For the Oscars, the favorite won in 19 of the 24 categories.
Perhaps the biggest upset was Sinners winning Best Cinematography despite the market giving One Battle After Another an 85% chance of taking the award.
Over $3.7 million was traded on the market. All other markets with higher volumes accurately predicted the winners. Other upsets included:
- The Girl Who Cried Pearls won Best Animated Short Film (21% chance)
- Mr. Nobody Against Putin won Best Documentary Feature Film (25% chance)
- One Battle After Another won Best Casting (15% chance)
- Singers and Two People Exchanging Saliva tied for Best Live Action Short Film (2% chance)
These markets all had less than $1 million in trading volume. Like sports betting, wagering on all the favorites rarely pays dividends. Kalshi had allowed users to create parlays across categories, and several users posted screenshots of losing 24 legs by combining all the market leaders.
Who Will Attend Market Sees High Volume
The “Who will attend the Oscars?” market saw over $2.8 million in trading volume, with Zendaya’s late appearance causing users to wager against her appearing. Before presenting the Best Director award, her chances of showing up dropped to 49%.
Users backing her not to appear commented on the market, expressing frustration. These markets may be especially susceptible to insider information. Jeff Bezos‘ stepson allegedly passed information to fellow college students about his non-attendance at the Super Bowl. There did not appear to be any suggestions of something similar at the Oscars.
The event, therefore, appears to have been a success for prediction markets. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara posted on X that these kinds of event contracts are some of her favorite markets. The high trading volume highlights how platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket can target popular culture to attract new users.
