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Read Full BioCalifornia Governor Gavin Newsom and Vice President JD Vance have seen their chances of becoming the candidates to lead their parties in 2028 sharply decline since last year.
On the Democrat side, Newsom continues to lead the market, but is now given a 25% chance, down from 38.5% in November. Vance, meanwhile, has dropped from around 60% last year to under 40%.
Overall, Vance remains the favorite to become the next President, with Polymarket pricing it at 21.5% that he will be elected. That is down from a high of 31.5% last year. Newsom is next in line with a 17.9% chance, ahead of Marco Rubio at 11.7%. That is a drop off from the 16.7% chance he rose to last week.
The market at Kalshi, meanwhile, now makes Newsom the favorite with a 20% chance, just ahead of Vance at 19%, and Rubio at 16%.
Billions Traded on Election Already
Close to $1 billion has been traded on Polymarket’s “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028” market. Newsom was originally given around an 18% chance of winning the nomination in August last year, shortly after the market opened. This was just ahead of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) at 16%.
Newsom quickly became the clear favorite; however, his chance of success increased to a high of 38.5% in November. AOC remains the second favorite, but at just 9%.
The drop in Newsom’s price is therefore not a response to a rival candidate surging in popularity, but users appear to be less inclined to back the California governor.
Newsom has not publicly said he intends to run for President, although he is widely expected to have those ambitions. Last year, Victor Rocha, the conference chairman of the Indian Gaming Association, said his presidential hopes could have prevented him from signing off on a bill banning sweepstakes casinos in California, out of fear of angering young voters. He did, however, sign the bill.
Current President Donald Trump this week referred to him as the President of the United States, while claiming his dyslexia should prevent him from assuming the position.
Trump stated, “The president of the United States, Gavin Newscum (Trump’s nickname for Newsom), admitted that he has learning disabilities, dyslexia… everything about him is dumb.”
Rubio Rivals Vance for Republican Nominee
On the Republican side, Rubio’s prominence during the war in Iran has improved his chances of gaining the party’s nomination to succeed Trump.
Inside the party, a “Draft Rubio” in the 2028 campaign is emerging, according to a report. Trump reportedly said, “I used to think it would be Vance-Rubio, but maybe it will be Rubio-Vance.”
At Polymarket, Rubio’s chances rose from 12% last month to 26.8%, leading Vance’s hopes to fall. It appears to be a two-horse race, with Tucker Carlson next at 3%.
Over $432 million has been traded on the market. In the main Presidential market, an additional $424 million has been traded, bringing the total on election-related markets well over $1 billion.
It was the last election that led to a raid on Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan’s home, with the FBI alleging the platform was continuing to accept users in the US, despite being ordered to exit the country.
That case was dropped last year, paving the way for the company to gain a license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Its US platform remains limited, with the election markets attracting high volumes of trading on its international site.
The winner of the next election could be pivotal in deciding the future of prediction markets. Having signed off on a ban on sweepstakes casinos, Newsom could be a threat to the industry’s growth. Platforms such as Polymarket may hope his decline in chances of winning the Democratic nomination is a sign of things to come.
