Entain predicts UK growth but issues warning on potential tax increase

Entain
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Entain has stated that its performance in the third quarter of 2024 was “ahead of expectations”, as online net gaming revenue (NGR) has risen by up to 10% year-over-year.

However, newly appointed CEO Gavin Isaacs also apprised investors regarding the impact of a potential tax increase on the UK gambling market. Isaacs noted that such increases would “have a materially, detrimental impact on the economic contribution of wider industry”.

The gaming group reiterated its update from last month that its UK&I online operations have returned to YoY growth “sooner than expected”, adding that all key markets delivered growth during the quarter as well.

Following the “stronger than expected” Q3, Entain has upgraded its guidance for FY24 to expect online proforma NGR growth to be mid-single-digit positive on a constant currency basis, as the operator has “increased confidence for the balance of the year.”

Isaacs, who was confirmed as CEO of Entain at the beginning of September, added that the company is “already on a path of strategic and operational improvement”.

Q3 ahead of expectations

Publishing its financials, Entain reported a total group NGR, including its 50% share of BetMGM in the US, increased by 8% in comparison to the same period last year, by 10% cc and by 7% in cc on a proforma basis.

Excluding US operations, group NGR rose by 7% YoY, 8% cc and 6% proforma cc. Online NGR increased by 10% YoY, 12% cc and 9% proforma cc. Retail NGR stayed consistent YoY and cc but dropped by 1% proforma cc.

On a proforma cc, gaming NGR is up 6% YoY, while sports NGR grew by 5% with sports wagers up 3% and sports margin up 0.2 percentage points. 

Online, gaming NGR is up 9% YoY, sports NGR increased by 8% with sports wagers growing by 3% and sports margin up 0.4pp. For retail, gaming and sports NGR were both down by 2% and 1%, while sports wagers rose by 2%, but sports margin was down 0.5pp.

Isaacs commented: “My first few weeks as CEO of Entain have reaffirmed my view that this is a very good business operating in a highly attractive global industry. 

“Entain has great brands, an enviably diverse global portfolio and is bursting with talent, ambition and opportunities.”

UK tax increase would have a ‘detrimental impact’

Per market, UK&I NGR was up by 2% YoY proforma cc, with online NGR increasing by 6% and retail NGR down 2%. Gaming NGR is up 3%, but sports NGR is down 1% with sports wagers flat and sports margin up 0.1pp.

Entain noted that UK&I online growth reflected “the lapping of prior year regulatory implementation as well as product, offering and customer journey enhancements”. 

Deputy CEO and CFO Rob Wood added during Entain’s Q3 earnings call that the company expects mid-single-digit growth to continue into next year as well.

However, during the earnings call, Isaacs also issued a message to the UK government in response to reports that it could increase taxes on the gambling industry.

The CEO said: “Until the budget is announced, it’s all conjecture. We continue to highlight to the treasury that a putative tax increase would have a materially, detrimental impact on the economic contribution of wider industry, putting at risk thousands of jobs, funding for sports and racing, as well as benefiting the black market.”

International NGR is up 9% proforma cc as operations in Brazil “continued to outperform expectations” with a 48% increase cc.

Online NGR increased by 10% proforma cc, while retail NGR was flat proforma cc. Gaming and sports NGR as well as sports wagers rose by 9%, 8% and 3% respectively, with sports margin up 0.1pp.

Entain’s CEE NGR rose by 11% proforma cc, with online and retail NGR rising by 13% and 2%. Gaming and sports NGR, as well as sports wagers increased by 19%, 8% and 10% respectively, while sports margin was up 0.2pp.

The company also highlighted SuperSport in Croatia, noting that the operator is “continuing to perform particularly strongly”.

The future of assets analysed

Entain noted that the board’s Capital Allocation Committee completed its review of strategic alternatives for Crystalbet, concluding “not to pursue a sale”, as the Georgian sports betting and gaming brand has “strong growth and cash generation” and that third party interest “did not exceed its value to Entain as an attractive part of our global portfolio”.

Entain stated that BetMGM – its joint venture with MGM Resorts International in the US – has seen an “encouraging start to H2” after achieving Q3 NGR growth of 18%cc and a “market share stabilisation” of 15% with igaming standing at 22% and sports betting at 8%.

The company also spotlighted enhanced sports betting experience via its Angstrom capabilities across MLB, NBA, NFL & NCAAF helped to drive increased parlay bet mix and gross gaming revenue hold.

In addition, Entain said Q3 saw record igaming revenues for BetMGM with first-time deposits (FTD) up 70%, “strong online sports to gaming cross-sell in NFL season to date”, as well as “encouraging trends from single account single wallet integration in Nevada with strong FTD growth and player engagement continuing upon return to home state”

FY24 outlook

Looking ahead, in reaction to its Q3 performance and increased confidence for the remainder of the year, Entain has revised its FY24 guidance.

The company now expects mid-single-digit proforma cc growth in online NGR (previously low single digit), as well as group EBITDA to be towards the top of its £1.04bn to £1.09bn guidance range.

“Entain is already on a path of strategic and operational improvement, with the strong Q3 performance demonstrating the progress achieved so far,” noted Isaacs.

“We are at the beginning of the journey and I’m looking forward to accelerating our progress, leading the business in our next growth chapter and capturing the many exciting opportunities ahead.”