Argentina’s Lionel Messi and France’s Kylian Mbappe are favored to win the Golden Boot award as the World Cup’s top goal scorer, according to odds at Kalshi.
It’s essentially a two-man race, as England’s Harry Kane only has a 9% implied probability to capture the trophy.
Kalshi’s Golden Boot Odds
Here are Kalshi’s Golden Boot odds as of publication:
| Player (Goals) | Kalshi Odds | American Odds |
| Lionel Messi (6) | 44% | +127 |
| Kylian Mbappe (6) | 42% | +138 |
| Harry Kane (5) | 9% | +1011 |
| Erling Haaland (5) | 3% | +3233 |
| Ousmane Dembele (4) | 3% | +3233 |
Top Contenders to Win Golden Boot
Let’s examine the top trio of players who can win the 2026 Golden Boot award.
Lionel Messi
Messi has amassed six goals so far in the 2026 World Cup. He recorded his first World Cup hat trick in Argentina’s 3-0 win over Algeria in the group stage.
Messi carried Argentina to the World Cup title in 2022, scoring seven goals. This is his sixth World Cup for Argentina. Messi has 123 international goals for Argentina, the most by any player.
Kylian Mbappe
Notably, Mbappi is averaging a goal per game after 18 World Cup matches. He helped lead France to the 2018 World Cup title by scoring four goals at the age of 19.
Mbappi is the reigning Golden Boot winner after scoring eight goals in 2022. He registered a hat trick against Argentina in the World Cup final to nip Messi, but France came up short on back-to-back titles.
Harry Kane
Five of Kane’s 13 World Cup goals have come in this tournament. His last goal against DR Congo pushed him past Pele on the all-time list (see full list below).
Kane is also one of just six players to score five or more goals in two different World Cups. He is England’s all-time leading scorer with 84 goals in 118 international appearances.
Recent Golden Boot Award Winners at World Cup
Here’s a look at players who’ve won the Golden Boot in recent World Cups dating back to the turn of the century:
- 2022: Kylian Mbappe (France) – 8 goals
- 2018: Harry Kane (England) – 6 goals
- 2014: James Rodriguez (Colombia) – 6 goals
- 2010: Thomas Muller (Germany) – 5 goals
- 2006: Miroslav Klose (Germany) – 5 goals
- 2002: Ronaldo (Brazil) – 8 goals
All-Time Leading World Cup Scorers
Now, let’s review the most prolific scorers in World Cup history, dating back to the first tournament in 1930.
- Lionel Messi (Argentina) – 19
- Kylian Mbappe (France) – 18
- Miroslav Klose (Germany) – 16
- Ronaldo (Brazil) – 15
- Gerd Muller (Germany) – 14
- Harry Kane (England) – 13
- Just Fontaine (France) – 13
- Pele (Brazil) – 12
- Jurgen Klinsmann (Germany) – 11
- Sandar Kocsis (Hungary) – 11
