Reform leader Nigel Farage has resigned as a Member of Parliament (MP) in Clacton, but will stand in a new by-election to fight for his seat.
With major UK political parties claiming it is nothing more than a publicity stunt, bookies make Count Binface the only threat to Farage’s position. Reform, however, has slipped behind Labour in the betting to win the next UK general election.
UK bookmakers make Farage the 1/6 favorite (-600) to win back his Clacton seat. Count Binface is next in the betting at odds of 5/1 (+500).
Count Binface Emerges as Threat to Farage
Count Binface is a satirical political candidate in the UK who frequently appears in high-profile elections, standing against candidates such as Farage.
He posted his intention to stand in the Clacton by-election on X, demanding that the other parties stand down.
Prediction markets in the US give Farage a 93% chance of success ahead of Binface at 6%. Labour has a 1% chance, but has already stated that it will not put up a candidate.
“Nobody is going to get drawn into what is a political stunt by Nigel Farage because he wants to duck and dive around the rules that apply to everyone,” Labour Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper stated.
When asked if it was a stunt, Farage said that it was “a big gamble.”
Links to Gambling ‘Whale’ Spark Farage Resignation
The UK’s Parliamentary Standards Committee has been investigating Farage since May over undeclared funds. He allegedly failed to declare a £5 million ($6.67 million) gift from billionaire Reform donor Christopher Harborne.
Tensions escalated over the weekend as the Sunday Times alleged that George Cottrell, a close advisor to Farage, orchestrated a web of undisclosed gifts and payments to fund the Reform leaders’ election campaigns.
In response, Farage resigned as an MP and said that he would let the people of Clacton decide his fate. In a speech on Tuesday announcing his decision, he said the by-election is “a chance to stick two fingers up to the entire establishment to frankly tell them where to go.”
Cottrell has a checkered past with links to illegal gambling and money laundering. He served time in a US federal prison after pleading guilty to selling money laundering services on the dark web.
Following his release from prison, he has allegedly acted as a “whale” for UK gambling billionaire Tony Bloom‘s betting syndicates. His reputation as a high-stakes gambler made him the perfect foil to place large bets on offshore gambling sites. He is also involved in the crypto-gambling platform Tether.
Earlier this year, his Polymarket account showed he continues to wager huge amounts. He lost over $700,000 wagering on when the US would strike Iran. Despite the loss, his account remains over $3 million in profit after he won bets backing Donald Trump at the last Presidential election.
Reform Slips Behind Labour In Election Betting
With the financial scandal surrounding Farage, Reform has slipped behind Labour in the betting to be the winning party at the next UK general election.
Labour is also replacing its leader, with Andy Burnham set to assume office following the resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Starmer’s exit amid dwindling popularity may also have increased the party’s chances of retaining power.
Kalshi’s market now gives Labour a 37% chance of winning the election, which is scheduled for 2029. Reform has a 34% chance, falling below Labour for the first time since May last year.
UK bookies make Labour the 17/10 (+170) favorite ahead of Reform at 5/2 (+250).
