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Read Full BioDraftKings has revealed that the Buffalo Bills’ comeback win against the Baltimore Ravens in NFL Week 1 “was the single-worst game outcome ever for the company.”
The result was noted in an investor meeting with the company’s upper management at its headquarters in Boston on September 17.
Tough Start to NFL Season
In a document noting the meeting’s takeaways, the first main point is headed, “Start to the NFL season not great.” It then goes on to mention the Bills’ game, which was particularly bad due to “player props hitting and bettors piling into the Bills’ moneyline before the game and during the contest when the team was down 15 points”.
The Bills started the game as +105 underdogs and then peaked at +4000 live odds with 4:48 left in the game against the Ravens. DraftKings noted that the Bills had just a 0.9% chance to win.
DraftKings’ losses could have been worse, however. Before the game, the sportsbook recommended a same-game parlay featuring Barstool Sports media personality Jon Gruden.
Gruden opted for under 34.5 rushing yards for Josh Allen, over 83.5 for Derrick Henry, and a total of less than 50.5 points in the match. The first two prop bets landed, but with 81 points, it led to a losing bet for at least 1,100 users who had backed it.
Sportsbook Odds Superior to Prediction Markets, For Now
DraftKings will hope to claw back losses throughout the season, but noted that, “Following poor game outcomes in the last
two NFL seasons, actual gaming margins have underperformed expected margins to start the year.”
The availability of prediction markets this season has added an extra layer of complexity for sportsbooks to consider. In the first week of the NFL, Kalshi saw record volumes of trading, but DraftKings’ odds were still shown to be more favorable.
As liquidity increases on prediction market platforms, the commission fee charged by Kalshi will become less obstructive, and that may change. In the UK, betting exchange Betfair tends to have better odds than sportsbooks, particularly on high-volume markets.
Prediction markets were also a talking point for DraftKings at its recent meeting. It noted, “The company has maintained there has been no impact from the existing prediction market operators in states with a legal framework”.
The main attraction for users at the moment is the possibility to “legally wager” on sports in states that have not yet legalized sports betting. If the odds also became superior, then major sportsbooks would face a strong threat in the legal market as well.
DraftKings has explored the possibility of entering prediction markets and stated, “it would most likely operate in states only without legal sports betting and would turn off the product if a state legalizes sports betting.”
DraftKings Remains Upbeat About NFL Season
Despite the negative results in the Bills’ game, DraftKings CEO Jason Robins remained upbeat for the season and year ahead. The meeting notes stated, “Across revenue drivers, Mr. Robins is seeing player engagement, retention, acquisition, in-play product, and promotional spend tracking in line with or better than expectations to start the season.”
With the results of sports markets unpredictable, the company said, “iGaming is and will be a core focus for the company moving forward.”
It noted that it has lagged behind competitors with a growth rate of 18% in the first half of the year. This compares unfavorably to FanDuel (37%), BetMGM (28%), and Caesars (43%).
To bridge the gap, the company has been “allocating more dollars and resources” to attract “direct, iCasino-first customers.”
